Introduction to Probability Management

Section 1: Probability Management Basics

• Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD)
• The Flaw of Averages
• The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
• Limbic Analytics: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants
• The Hindu/Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty
• The Probability Power Grid
• Data Table Simulation in Excel

Section 2: The Five Mindles of Uncertainty

A MINDle lets you grasp something with your mind as a HANDle lets you grasp something with your hand. Understanding the arithmetic of uncertainty requires grasping five concepts beyond the operations of standard arithmetic. They are:

• Risk vs. Uncertainty
• Uncertain Numbers
• Combinations of Uncertainties
• Plans Based on Uncertainties
• Interrelated Uncertainties

Section 3: Introduction to Applications

• Nonlinear cost functions
• Building a Risk Model
• Estimating distributions from forecasts

Section 4: The Human Element

The PTSD picked up in a statistics class may be addressed through the following concepts:

• The permission to be uncertain
• Unambiguous Uncertainty
• Limbic Analytics