Overview
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Get an introduction to simple exponential smoothing, including how to assemble the forecast equation and optimize forecasts.
Syllabus
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Introduction
- Welcome
- Self-correcting forecasts
- From error correction to smoothing
- Exponentially declining influence of observations
- Identify the appropriate baseline
- Dissect the error correction form
- Dissect the smoothing form
- Exponential smoothing tool
- Initialize the forecasts
- The absolute deviation approach
- The least squares approach
- Solver
- Set up the smoothing formula for Solver
- Solution in R
- Next steps
